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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 1h 29m Atlanta ATL 09:44 → JFK 12:00DL 1034 5h 00m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380 5h 20m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575 6h 08m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 19:33 → JFK 21:52DL 2378 6h 07m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:15 → CLT 10:04AA 2185 1h 24m Charlotte CLT 11:28 → JFK 13:28AA 374 5h 13m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → VPS 11:43 → ATL 13:56DL 2048 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 17:34 → JFK 19:51DL 2398 7h 08m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:17 → DFW 09:29AA 2560 3h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:20 → JFK 18:10AA 1058 9h 53m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → VPS 06:00 → MIA 08:46AA 4301 · flown by Envoy 1h 36m Miami MIA 10:22 → JFK 13:32AA 2062 6h 32m 97% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON