tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 5h 42m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525 6h 50m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 20:00 → LGA 22:27DL 490 6h 42m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460 5h 29m 97% 74%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:15 → CLT 10:04AA 2185 1h 43m Charlotte CLT 11:47 → LGA 13:46AA 2268 5h 31m 95% 73%
AmericanDetails → VPS 06:00 → MIA 08:46AA 4301 · flown by Envoy 1h 12m Miami MIA 09:58 → LGA 13:09AA 2424 6h 09m 93% 72%
AmericanDetails → VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560 1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:45 → LGA 15:25AA 2922 7h 55m 96% 71%
DeltaDetails → VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048 55m Atlanta ATL 14:30 → LGA 16:50DL 524 4h 35m 93% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON