Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 4301 at 06:00, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4301 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	VPS 06:00	MIA 08:46	11%	4%	1.1%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 02m	98%	83%
American Details →	VPS 07:15 → CLT 10:04AA 2185	58m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	4h 56m	91%	77%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:31DL 1323	5h 10m	97%	76%
American Details →	VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560	1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:24 → MIA 14:24AA 1454	6h 54m	96%	73%
Delta Details →	VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	4h 40m	96%	72%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588	6h 14m	98%	71%
American Details →	VPS 12:18 → DFW 14:35AA 2460	3h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:43 → MIA 21:44AA 2050	8h 26m	98%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON