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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901 6h 50m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090 5h 30m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825 6h 45m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654 7h 03m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:15 → CLT 10:04AA 2185 2h 25m Charlotte CLT 12:29 → MSP 14:23AA 1671 7h 08m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 19:59 → MSP 21:38DL 1280 6h 53m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560 3h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:49 → MSP 14:20AA 1668 7h 50m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → VPS 12:18 → DFW 14:35AA 2460 1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:48 → MSP 18:18AA 2406 6h 00m 88% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON