tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:22 → ORD 12:34DL 2894 5h 34m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:15 → CLT 10:04AA 2185 57m Charlotte CLT 11:01 → ORD 12:19AA 2908 5h 04m 93% 85%
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 13:02 → ORD 14:14DL 1477 4h 53m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 47m Atlanta ATL 09:02 → ORD 10:10DL 1147 4h 10m 87% 78%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:17 → DFW 09:29AA 2560 1h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:26 → ORD 14:00AA 1285 6h 43m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 19:39 → ORD 20:50DL 1139 6h 05m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → VPS 11:43 → ATL 13:56DL 2048 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 15:16 → ORD 16:28DL 2738 4h 45m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → VPS 12:18 → DFW 14:35AA 2460 2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:37 → ORD 19:02AA 1290 6h 44m 95% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON