tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching St Louis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 5h 17m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 15:17 → STL 16:06DL 543 6h 45m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393 6h 38m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 19:16 → STL 20:05DL 2833 5h 20m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:15 → CLT 10:04AA 2185 2h 01m Charlotte CLT 12:05 → STL 13:04AA 3096 5h 49m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 49m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 3h 43m 88% 80%
AmericanDetails → VPS 06:00 → MIA 08:46AA 4301 · flown by Envoy 2h 46m Miami MIA 11:32 → STL 13:42AA 477 7h 42m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → VPS 12:18 → DFW 14:35AA 2460 3h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:00 → STL 19:59AA 2487 7h 41m 98% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON