Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1095 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1095 IAD 06:30 → SFO 09:12 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 1757 IAD 17:55 → SFO 20:37 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1095 United Flight history →	IAD 06:30	SFO 09:12	11%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 369 United Flight history →	DCA 07:55	SFO 10:50	11%	4%	0.6%	88%
WN 3400 Southwest	BWI 11:41	SJC 14:21	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1773 United	IAD 09:45	SFO 12:29	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1147 United Flight history →	IAD 08:35	SFO 11:19	15%	4%	0.6%	86%
UA 2192 United Flight history →	BWI 08:08	SFO 11:15	15%	4%	0.6%	94%
UA 2862 United Flight history →	IAD 14:51	SFO 17:38	17%	7%	0.6%	82%
UA 1434 United Flight history →	IAD 12:40	SFO 15:27	18%	7%	0.6%	79%
WN 4351 Southwest	BWI 11:46	SFO 14:32	18%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 796 United Flight history →	IAD 16:15	SFO 18:56	19%	7%	0.6%	84%
UA 2832 United	IAD 18:37	SFO 21:28	21%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 2166 United	DCA 17:59	SFO 21:03	23%	11%	0.6%	no record
AS 7 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 18:59	SFO 21:56	26%	12%	0.8%	69%
UA 504 United Flight history →	BWI 18:59	SFO 21:50	28%	11%	0.6%	56%
UA 1757 United Flight history →	IAD 17:55	SFO 20:37	30%	10%	0.6%	60%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176	1h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	8h 20m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 30m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432	51m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	7h 31m	89%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON