Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 50 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1067 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 1067 BWI 06:16 → MDW 07:26 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 590 BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1067 Southwest	BWI 06:16	MDW 07:26	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2276 Southwest	DCA 07:57	MDW 09:04	5%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 1070 Southwest	BWI 07:44	MDW 08:54	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
YX 4596 Republic	BWI 06:04	ORD 07:21	7%	3%	1.7%	no record
UA 1793 United Flight history →	DCA 06:30	ORD 07:46	7%	2%	1.4%	92%
WN 1071 Southwest	BWI 09:01	MDW 10:10	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1504 Southwest	DCA 09:32	MDW 10:39	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 2691 United	IAD 06:09	ORD 07:14	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 441 United Flight history →	DCA 07:41	ORD 08:53	9%	3%	1.3%	86%
AA 523 American Flight history →	DCA 06:29	ORD 07:39	10%	3%	2.6%	78%
UA 1252 United Flight history →	IAD 10:31	ORD 11:53	10%	4%	0.6%	92%
UA 1775 United Flight history →	IAD 08:15	ORD 09:36	10%	4%	0.7%	84%
UA 2774 United Flight history →	DCA 09:30	ORD 10:50	11%	4%	1.3%	94%
UA 1061 United Flight history →	DCA 08:25	ORD 09:43	11%	4%	1.2%	93%
AA 2633 American Flight history →	DCA 07:54	ORD 09:14	11%	4%	1.8%	87%
UA 351 United Flight history →	DCA 09:32	ORD 10:53	14%	5%	1.0%	88%
WN 2938 Southwest	DCA 13:06	MDW 14:13	14%	4%	1.0%	no record
WN 1072 Southwest	BWI 14:38	MDW 15:50	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 522 American	DCA 08:52	ORD 10:15	15%	5%	1.7%	no record
UA 2749 United Flight history →	BWI 08:16	ORD 09:30	15%	4%	0.6%	86%
WN 1506 Southwest	DCA 15:01	MDW 16:08	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 1508 Southwest	DCA 20:41	MDW 21:49	16%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 488 American	DCA 20:36	ORD 22:05	16%	7%	1.4%	no record
AA 808 American Flight history →	DCA 11:30	ORD 12:40	16%	6%	1.8%	90%
AA 2023 American Flight history →	DCA 10:19	ORD 11:29	17%	6%	1.4%	81%
AA 3762 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BWI 11:28	ORD 12:33	17%	6%	1.5%	79%
UA 249 United	BWI 11:55	ORD 13:07	17%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 2331 United Flight history →	IAD 13:15	ORD 14:29	17%	6%	0.6%	81%
UA 2803 United	DCA 11:57	ORD 13:10	18%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 2284 American	DCA 13:54	ORD 15:10	19%	9%	1.9%	no record
WN 818 Southwest	DCA 18:01	MDW 19:08	19%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 1888 United Flight history →	DCA 14:00	ORD 15:18	19%	8%	1.3%	71%
MQ 4253 Envoy	BWI 14:18	ORD 15:34	20%	7%	1.4%	no record
UA 511 United Flight history →	DCA 13:00	ORD 14:18	20%	8%	1.2%	76%
YX 4758 Republic	BWI 18:15	ORD 19:33	22%	8%	2.1%	no record
F9 4307 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 10:21	ORD 11:36	22%	7%	2.0%	67%
UA 2218 United Flight history →	DCA 20:08	ORD 21:17	22%	8%	1.1%	63%
WN 1643 Southwest	BWI 18:56	MDW 20:06	22%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1637 American Flight history →	DCA 15:58	ORD 17:09	23%	10%	1.6%	74%
AA 1221 American	DCA 15:06	ORD 16:23	23%	9%	1.6%	no record
UA 1193 United Flight history →	DCA 19:10	ORD 20:32	23%	8%	1.2%	58%
UA 1703 United	IAD 15:47	ORD 16:52	24%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 1325 United Flight history →	DCA 15:30	ORD 16:52	24%	8%	1.2%	66%
AA 3148 American	DCA 18:20	ORD 19:30	28%	11%	1.9%	no record
UA 1223 United	BWI 19:10	ORD 20:27	28%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 2148 United Flight history →	DCA 18:10	ORD 19:32	28%	10%	1.1%	51%
UA 654 United Flight history →	DCA 17:05	ORD 18:30	31%	10%	1.2%	50%
UA 2497 United Flight history →	IAD 17:42	ORD 18:50	31%	9%	0.6%	48%
AA 1189 American Flight history →	DCA 17:00	ORD 18:11	31%	12%	1.7%	61%
UA 590 United Flight history →	BWI 17:32	ORD 18:55	31%	10%	0.6%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON