Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 31 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2196 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 2196 DCA 06:01 → DAL 08:05 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1213 BWI 19:33 → DFW 21:48 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2196 Southwest	DCA 06:01	DAL 08:05	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 15 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 07:11	DAL 09:17	4%	1%	0.6%	93%
AA 1839 American Flight history →	DCA 06:59	DFW 09:25	5%	3%	0.9%	90%
WN 698 Southwest	BWI 08:46	DAL 10:52	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1978 American Flight history →	DCA 07:59	DFW 10:31	7%	3%	0.9%	84%
AA 2617 American Flight history →	IAD 06:14	DFW 08:35	8%	3%	0.9%	85%
AA 2007 American Flight history →	DCA 04:55	DFW 07:06	8%	3%	1.0%	90%
UA 2471 United Flight history →	IAD 08:30	DFW 10:53	9%	3%	0.6%	88%
WN 295 Southwest	DCA 09:01	DAL 11:05	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1623 American Flight history →	DCA 11:59	DFW 14:23	12%	5%	0.9%	76%
AA 1177 American Flight history →	DCA 13:44	DFW 16:11	12%	5%	0.9%	78%
AA 1403 American Flight history →	BWI 09:08	DFW 11:30	12%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 795 American Flight history →	DCA 09:59	DFW 12:11	13%	4%	0.9%	90%
UA 1564 United Flight history →	IAD 12:41	DFW 15:05	13%	5%	0.6%	79%
AA 1624 American Flight history →	DCA 15:13	DFW 17:44	15%	6%	0.9%	82%
WN 1550 Southwest	BWI 13:06	DAL 15:12	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2314 American Flight history →	BWI 11:58	DFW 14:13	17%	6%	0.9%	72%
WN 989 Southwest	BWI 15:41	DAL 17:46	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2116 United Flight history →	IAD 18:00	DFW 20:25	18%	7%	0.6%	72%
AA 524 American Flight history →	IAD 15:05	DFW 17:13	18%	5%	0.8%	83%
AA 1414 American Flight history →	DCA 17:11	DFW 19:41	20%	7%	1.0%	65%
AA 1158 American Flight history →	DCA 18:55	DFW 21:20	20%	8%	1.3%	61%
AA 1863 American Flight history →	IAD 18:42	DFW 20:50	21%	7%	0.9%	70%
F9 4559 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 12:23	DFW 14:36	21%	7%	1.0%	70%
WN 1894 Southwest	DCA 14:31	DAL 16:35	21%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1305 Southwest	DCA 16:21	DAL 18:25	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 990 Southwest	BWI 19:51	DAL 21:56	23%	6%	0.6%	no record
F9 1475 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 13:21	DFW 15:38	24%	9%	0.8%	68%
AA 2669 American	BWI 16:29	DFW 19:01	24%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 4784 Southwest	DCA 20:06	DAL 22:10	25%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1213 American Flight history →	BWI 19:33	DFW 21:48	27%	8%	1.0%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON