Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1450 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 1450 DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 3067 BWI 16:44 → IAH 19:07 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1450 United Flight history →	DCA 06:00	IAH 08:13	4%	2%	0.7%	93%
WN 934 Southwest	DCA 06:06	HOU 08:10	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
UA 1898 United Flight history →	BWI 06:00	IAH 08:16	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 1747 United	IAD 06:17	IAH 08:48	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1009 Southwest	BWI 07:34	HOU 09:42	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 697 United Flight history →	DCA 08:20	IAH 10:41	10%	3%	0.7%	91%
UA 2190 United Flight history →	DCA 10:58	IAH 13:19	10%	3%	0.7%	86%
UA 1524 United Flight history →	IAD 08:40	IAH 10:59	12%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 1535 United Flight history →	IAD 12:50	IAH 15:11	12%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 2194 United Flight history →	BWI 13:04	IAH 15:16	12%	5%	0.6%	90%
WN 1010 Southwest	BWI 10:54	HOU 13:03	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 382 United Flight history →	DCA 12:59	IAH 15:18	12%	4%	0.7%	91%
OH 5496 PSA	DCA 07:36	IAH 09:38	14%	4%	1.0%	no record
UA 1911 United	BWI 15:02	IAH 17:10	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1678 United Flight history →	DCA 19:28	IAH 21:59	16%	6%	0.7%	73%
UA 2607 United	IAD 15:04	IAH 17:09	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1785 United Flight history →	DCA 16:59	IAH 19:27	18%	7%	0.7%	66%
WN 1494 Southwest	DCA 13:06	HOU 15:12	20%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 2217 United Flight history →	IAD 17:59	IAH 20:25	21%	7%	0.6%	72%
OH 5411 PSA	DCA 20:42	IAH 22:44	24%	9%	1.1%	no record
WN 1011 Southwest	BWI 18:26	HOU 20:34	25%	6%	0.7%	no record
OH 5591 PSA	DCA 13:44	IAH 15:47	25%	8%	1.0%	no record
WN 1495 Southwest	DCA 18:56	HOU 21:00	25%	7%	0.8%	no record
F9 3067 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 16:44	IAH 19:07	28%	11%	1.2%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON