Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1974 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1974 BWI 06:16 → LAX 08:40 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2276 IAD 17:48 → LAX 20:21 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1974 Southwest	BWI 06:16	LAX 08:40	7%	1%	0.8%	no record
UA 657 United	IAD 09:39	LAX 12:22	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1689 United Flight history →	IAD 13:10	LAX 15:42	11%	5%	0.6%	90%
UA 1734 United Flight history →	IAD 08:15	LAX 10:47	12%	3%	0.7%	86%
UA 1591 United	BWI 08:03	LAX 10:53	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1966 American Flight history →	DCA 08:40	LAX 11:19	14%	5%	0.7%	83%
UA 2011 United	IAD 07:00	LAX 09:32	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2319 United	IAD 17:46	SNA 20:17	15%	6%	0.8%	no record
DL 392 Delta Flight history →	DCA 16:45	LAX 19:19	16%	6%	1.2%	75%
UA 684 United Flight history →	IAD 15:15	LAX 17:47	16%	5%	0.6%	89%
AS 5 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 09:59	LAX 12:27	17%	3%	0.8%	71%
WN 4971 Southwest	BWI 14:41	LAX 17:01	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1546 United Flight history →	BWI 19:23	LAX 21:52	19%	8%	0.6%	66%
AA 3283 American Flight history →	DCA 18:01	LAX 20:41	22%	9%	0.7%	70%
UA 2276 United Flight history →	IAD 17:48	LAX 20:21	23%	6%	0.6%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176	1h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:17 → ONT 12:12DL 1173	7h 57m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665	7h 58m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	7h 50m	97%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON