Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 38 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 5802 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–55%.

Safest bet that day DL 5802 DCA 06:02 → JFK 07:25 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1831 IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5802 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:02	JFK 07:25	4%	2%	1.5%	93%
AA 4551 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:30	JFK 07:57	5%	2%	1.6%	94%
YX 5843 Republic	DCA 06:18	LGA 07:40	7%	3%	2.7%	no record
AA 4403 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:54	LGA 08:16	8%	3%	2.7%	90%
B6 254 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 06:21	JFK 07:30	8%	3%	1.6%	91%
UA 1998 United	IAD 06:41	EWR 08:00	11%	3%	1.6%	no record
DL 5699 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:07	JFK 12:31	14%	4%	1.5%	94%
UA 2396 United Flight history →	IAD 08:29	EWR 09:55	14%	4%	1.2%	89%
AA 4522 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 13:14	JFK 14:47	20%	7%	1.2%	72%
YX 4366 Republic	DCA 10:16	LGA 11:38	20%	5%	1.7%	no record
DL 5772 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 08:15	LGA 09:33	21%	5%	2.0%	81%
YX 4546 Republic	DCA 11:27	LGA 12:49	22%	7%	1.7%	no record
YX 5809 Republic	IAD 12:20	JFK 13:45	24%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 4629 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 18:24	JFK 19:47	27%	7%	2.0%	71%
DL 5742 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:00	LGA 12:09	29%	7%	2.2%	75%
YX 5779 Republic	IAD 18:23	JFK 19:47	31%	10%	1.6%	no record
YX 5853 Republic	DCA 17:04	JFK 18:27	33%	8%	2.0%	no record
DL 5747 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 13:30	LGA 14:53	34%	14%	2.0%	67%
AA 4730 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 13:59	LGA 15:31	34%	15%	1.9%	62%
UA 1498 United Flight history →	IAD 12:35	EWR 14:01	35%	13%	1.1%	69%
YX 4569 Republic	DCA 15:01	LGA 16:23	38%	13%	1.6%	no record
YX 4636 Republic	DCA 17:25	LGA 18:59	38%	14%	2.1%	no record
YX 4583 Republic	DCA 18:29	LGA 19:50	41%	16%	2.3%	no record
DL 5752 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 19:40	LGA 21:04	43%	22%	2.7%	48%
DL 5763 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:40	LGA 18:59	46%	17%	2.6%	51%
UA 1831 United Flight history →	IAD 17:42	EWR 19:10	55%	17%	0.9%	59%worse than usual
UA 4167 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 06:00	EWR 07:19	7%	4%	2.2%	93%
UA 4184 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 10:07	EWR 11:29	13%	12%	5.6%	87%
UA 4508 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 11:00	EWR 12:22	14%	11%	6.7%	86%
UA 4430 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 08:30	EWR 09:52	16%	5%	2.2%	84%
UA 6116 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 08:19	LGA 09:48	18%	6%	2.9%	82%
UA 4077 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:15	LGA 18:42	23%	13%	13.9%	77%
UA 4442 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 13:00	EWR 14:22	33%	18%	4.6%	67%
DL 5076 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 19:14	JFK 21:00	36%	22%	12.7%	64%
UA 4560 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 15:10	EWR 16:30	36%	21%	8.3%	64%
UA 4180 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 17:55	EWR 19:28	43%	24%	11.4%	57%
UA 4401 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 16:30	EWR 18:03	44%	23%	5.4%	56%
UA 4174 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 20:25	EWR 21:58	47%	28%	11.8%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON