Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 32 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1178 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 1178 DCA 05:00 → MIA 07:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 2959 IAD 17:40 → FLL 20:23 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1178 American Flight history →	DCA 05:00	MIA 07:56	5%	2%	1.2%	93%
WN 408 Southwest	BWI 06:19	FLL 09:09	6%	1%	0.8%	no record
AA 2344 American Flight history →	DCA 04:53	MIA 07:45	9%	2%	1.2%	96%
UA 1825 United Flight history →	IAD 08:13	FLL 11:09	9%	4%	0.6%	89%
B6 379 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 06:00	FLL 08:32	10%	4%	1.0%	77%
AA 1183 American Flight history →	BWI 06:00	MIA 08:46	10%	3%	1.2%	87%
UA 1073 United Flight history →	IAD 08:45	MIA 11:35	11%	4%	0.7%	87%
AA 1893 American Flight history →	DCA 08:12	FLL 11:09	13%	4%	0.8%	89%
WN 2097 Southwest	BWI 08:19	FLL 11:02	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
B6 579 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 07:59	FLL 10:40	14%	5%	0.9%	81%
AA 401 American Flight history →	DCA 09:56	MIA 12:46	14%	3%	1.0%	93%
WN 4480 Southwest	BWI 08:27	MIA 11:09	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2293 Southwest	BWI 20:31	FLL 23:19	16%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 422 American Flight history →	DCA 08:20	MIA 11:17	17%	4%	1.1%	84%
B6 2995 JetBlue Flight history →	BWI 08:00	FLL 10:41	18%	5%	1.1%	80%
WN 1002 Southwest	BWI 12:42	FLL 15:30	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 1492 Southwest	DCA 11:41	FLL 14:25	21%	5%	0.8%	no record
F9 1665 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 10:51	MIA 13:47	22%	9%	1.6%	67%
WN 1003 Southwest	BWI 17:06	FLL 19:48	23%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 1627 American Flight history →	DCA 11:55	MIA 14:38	23%	6%	1.2%	76%
WN 4520 Southwest	BWI 19:56	MIA 22:37	27%	8%	1.3%	no record
F9 4411 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 13:05	FLL 15:47	27%	10%	2.1%	59%
AA 1612 American Flight history →	DCA 13:40	MIA 16:30	28%	9%	1.1%	62%
B6 2595 JetBlue Flight history →	BWI 16:00	FLL 18:41	28%	13%	1.2%	57%
AA 1779 American	BWI 19:11	MIA 22:02	30%	10%	1.3%	no record
DL 2576 Delta Flight history →	DCA 14:43	MIA 17:33	31%	10%	0.8%	67%
AA 582 American	DCA 19:06	MIA 21:54	31%	11%	1.4%	no record
AA 1299 American	DCA 14:56	MIA 17:46	31%	10%	1.1%	no record
B6 1979 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 19:02	FLL 21:51	33%	13%	1.2%	56%
B6 1579 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 16:37	FLL 19:26	35%	14%	1.1%	61%
AA 973 American	DCA 17:25	MIA 20:15	37%	12%	1.5%	no record
F9 2959 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 17:40	FLL 20:23	44%	13%	1.5%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON