Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3068 XNA 08:43 → ATL 11:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3785 XNA 15:21 → ATL 18:31 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3068 Delta	XNA 08:43	ATL 11:46	6%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 3795 SkyWest	XNA 06:06	ATL 09:16	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 1305 Delta	XNA 19:04	ATL 22:07	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 3739 SkyWest	XNA 12:01	ATL 15:11	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 3785 SkyWest	XNA 15:21	ATL 18:31	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 5497 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	XNA 07:20	ATL 10:17	13%	8%	1.4%	87%
DL 5339 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	XNA 09:39	ATL 12:34	17%	6%	1.4%	83%
DL 5275 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	XNA 08:20	ATL 11:15	25%	19%	3.6%	75%
DL 5126 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	XNA 17:59	ATL 20:55	41%	26%	1.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON