Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3871 at 08:51 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 3871 XNA 08:51 → CLT 12:12 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 5233 XNA 17:24 → CLT 20:37 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3871 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 08:51	CLT 12:12	7%	3%	0.8%	91%
OH 5197 PSA	XNA 06:05	CLT 09:17	9%	4%	1.4%	no record
AA 5327 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 10:42	CLT 13:55	12%	4%	1.1%	86%
AA 5233 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 17:24	CLT 20:37	18%	5%	1.5%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON