Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 3824 at 07:00, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3824 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 07:00	DCA 10:39	10%	3%	0.8%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy	3h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:33 → DCA 13:43AA 2399	7h 43m	98%	83%
United Details →	XNA 06:30 → IAH 08:21UA 4051 · flown by Mesa	3h 34m Houston	IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654	8h 33m	100%	83%
American Details →	XNA 07:55 → DFW 09:20AA 1700	2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414	7h 04m	100%	82%
American Details →	XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12AA 4088 · flown by Envoy	1h 53m Chicago	ORD 09:05 → DCA 12:17AA 523	6h 11m	94%	81%
American Details →	XNA 07:09 → ORD 09:10AA 3933 · flown by Envoy	1h 26m Chicago	ORD 10:36 → DCA 13:45AA 1200	5h 36m	90%	75%
United Details →	XNA 11:47 → IAH 13:37UA 4338 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 18m Houston	IAH 16:55 → DCA 21:18UA 235	8h 31m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	XNA 07:20 → ATL 10:18DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	6h 36m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	XNA 09:39 → ATL 12:34DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850	6h 51m	97%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	XNA 14:56 → ORD 16:59UA 4564 · flown by GoJet	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 18:00 → DCA 21:10UA 1369	5h 14m	69%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON