Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 5812 at 13:28 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 5812 XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 5694 XNA 17:06 → DEN 18:22 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5812 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 13:28	DEN 14:48	8%	4%	0.6%	92%
OO 5326 SkyWest	XNA 05:49	DEN 06:58	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 1091 Frontier Flight history →	XNA 19:19	DEN 20:23	17%	4%	0.8%	86%
UA 2383 United	XNA 09:00	DEN 10:00	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 5694 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 17:06	DEN 18:22	20%	5%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON