Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3614 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 3614 XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2150 XNA 18:22 → DFW 19:48 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3614 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 05:00	DFW 06:20	10%	3%	0.8%	87%
MQ 4111 Envoy	XNA 09:24	DFW 10:50	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3603 Envoy	XNA 10:30	DFW 11:47	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 1700 American Flight history →	XNA 07:55	DFW 09:20	15%	5%	1.0%	82%
AA 3803 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 14:34	DFW 15:51	15%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 3985 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 07:13	DFW 08:45	15%	4%	0.9%	75%
AA 2967 American	XNA 13:35	DFW 15:00	17%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 2025 American	XNA 12:01	DFW 13:26	18%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 3840 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 15:57	DFW 17:26	19%	5%	0.8%	72%
AA 2150 American	XNA 18:22	DFW 19:48	27%	9%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON