Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 4895 at 17:50, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 4895 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	XNA 17:50	DTW 21:04	15%	5%	0.8%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	XNA 07:09 → ORD 09:10AA 3933 · flown by Envoy	3h 49m Chicago	ORD 12:59 → DTW 15:19AA 3980 · flown by Envoy	7h 10m	100%	90%
American Details →	XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12AA 4088 · flown by Envoy	2h 33m Chicago	ORD 09:45 → DTW 12:05AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	5h 59m	97%	87%
United Details →	XNA 07:31 → ORD 09:24UA 4612 · flown by GoJet	1h 26m Chicago	ORD 10:50 → DTW 13:27UA 5756 · flown by SkyWest	4h 56m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	XNA 07:23 → ATL 10:24DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031	7h 19m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	XNA 09:54 → ATL 12:55DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005	6h 33m	98%	83%
United Details →	XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48UA 5812 · flown by SkyWest	2h 59m Denver	DEN 17:47 → DTW 22:43UA 1220	8h 15m	100%	81%
American Details →	XNA 09:38 → LGA 13:51AA 4591 · flown by Republic	3h 13m New York	LGA 17:04 → DTW 19:05AA 4414 · flown by Republic	8h 27m	100%	80%
American Details →	XNA 06:11 → DFW 07:29AA 3985 · flown by Envoy	3h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:17 → DTW 15:07AA 690	7h 56m	98%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON