Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 6482 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 07:10	LAX 08:52	13%	5%	0.5%	90%
OO 6299 SkyWest	XNA 16:16	LAX 17:50	16%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	XNA 06:30 → IAH 08:21UA 4051 · flown by Mesa	1h 32m Houston	IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469	7h 00m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	XNA 09:39 → ATL 12:34DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	8h 38m	96%	85%
American Details →	XNA 08:27 → PHX 09:18AA 4033 · flown by Envoy	1h 39m Phoenix	PHX 10:57 → LAX 12:35AA 2027	6h 08m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	XNA 07:20 → ATL 10:18DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	8h 52m	94%	84%
American Details →	XNA 07:55 → DFW 09:20AA 1700	2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:38 → LAX 13:05AA 442	7h 10m	100%	82%
American Details →	XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy	3h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:27 → LAX 10:44AA 3273	7h 44m	98%	81%
American Details →	XNA 07:09 → ORD 09:10AA 3933 · flown by Envoy	3h 03m Chicago	ORD 12:13 → LAX 14:38AA 3008	9h 29m	100%	81%
American Details →	XNA 08:51 → CLT 12:12AA 3871 · flown by Envoy	2h 21m Charlotte	CLT 14:33 → LAX 16:30AA 1502	9h 39m	99%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	XNA 14:56 → ORD 16:59UA 4564 · flown by GoJet	1h 11m Chicago	ORD 18:10 → LAX 20:40UA 1967	7h 44m	72%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON