Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4585 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–40%.

Safest bet that day YX 4585 XNA 05:58 → LGA 10:11 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4472 XNA 16:23 → LGA 20:35 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4585 Republic	XNA 05:58	LGA 10:11	12%	5%	1.8%	no record
AA 4591 American flown by Republic Flight history →	XNA 09:39	LGA 13:52	19%	6%	1.3%	92%worse than usual
AA 4472 American flown by Republic Flight history →	XNA 16:23	LGA 20:35	40%	15%	1.2%	68%
DL 5482 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	XNA 11:12	LGA 15:14	21%	9%	3.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON