tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Bush, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → XNA 06:30 → IAH 08:21UA 4051 · flown by Mesa 3h 39m Houston IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410 8h 17m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy 2h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:55 → MIA 12:55AA 1219 6h 55m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → XNA 07:20 → ATL 10:18DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:31DL 1323 7h 11m 96% 74%
AmericanDetails → XNA 08:51 → CLT 12:12AA 3871 · flown by Envoy 1h 17m Charlotte CLT 13:29 → MIA 15:36AA 1198 5h 45m 96% 73%
AmericanDetails → XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12AA 4088 · flown by Envoy 2h 54m Chicago ORD 10:06 → MIA 14:10AA 2689 8h 04m 95% 73%
AmericanDetails → XNA 07:00 → DCA 10:39AA 3824 · flown by Envoy 1h 16m Washington DCA 11:55 → MIA 14:38AA 1627 6h 38m 96% 72%
DeltaDetails → XNA 09:39 → ATL 12:34DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386 6h 16m 96% 72%
UnitedDetails → XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48UA 5812 · flown by SkyWest 1h 24m Denver DEN 16:12 → MIA 22:22UA 445 7h 54m 96% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON