tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3761 SkyWest XNA 11:45 MSP 13:43 12% 5% 0.6% no record
OO 3751 SkyWest XNA 16:56 MSP 18:54 14% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48UA 5812 · flown by SkyWest 3h 57m Denver DEN 18:45 → MSP 21:50UA 2076 8h 22m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → XNA 06:33 → PHL 10:34AA 5551 · flown by PSA 2h 38m Philadelphia PHL 13:12 → MSP 15:29AA 3294 8h 56m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → XNA 09:39 → ATL 12:34DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 15:38 → MSP 17:16DL 2981 7h 37m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → XNA 07:20 → ATL 10:18DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901 6h 30m 92% 82%
AmericanDetails → XNA 07:55 → DFW 09:20AA 1700 2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:49 → MSP 14:20AA 1668 6h 25m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → XNA 08:20 → ATL 11:15DL 5275 · flown by Endeavor 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825 7h 46m 92% 78%
AmericanDetails → XNA 07:09 → ORD 09:10AA 3933 · flown by Envoy 2h 40m Chicago ORD 11:50 → MSP 13:25AA 2448 6h 16m 100% 76%
AmericanDetails → XNA 13:01 → PHL 16:50AA 5543 · flown by PSA 3h 36m Philadelphia PHL 20:26 → MSP 22:27AA 1841 9h 26m 98% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → XNA 11:47 → IAH 13:37UA 4338 · flown by CommuteAir 58m Houston IAH 14:35 → MSP 17:24UA 1818 5h 37m 73% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON