Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4088 at 05:06 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 4088 XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 4411 XNA 18:24 → ORD 20:17 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4088 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 05:06	ORD 07:12	10%	3%	0.6%	86%
AA 3595 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 09:19	ORD 11:10	14%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 3933 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 07:09	ORD 09:10	15%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 4612 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	XNA 07:31	ORD 09:24	16%	4%	0.9%	81%
G7 4435 GoJet	XNA 11:15	ORD 13:08	16%	5%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3660 Envoy	XNA 19:35	ORD 21:28	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3470 Envoy	XNA 14:08	ORD 16:02	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
G7 4470 GoJet	XNA 14:51	ORD 16:43	20%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 4411 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	XNA 18:24	ORD 20:17	24%	8%	1.0%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON