Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 5551 at 06:33 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5551 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 06:33	PHL 10:34	8%	4%	1.2%	86%
AA 5543 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 13:01	PHL 16:50	19%	6%	0.9%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy	2h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:29 → PHL 13:00AA 2255	7h 00m	94%	82%
United Details →	XNA 06:30 → IAH 08:21UA 4051 · flown by Mesa	3h 59m Houston	IAH 12:20 → PHL 16:55UA 2748	9h 25m	100%	80%
American Details →	XNA 07:55 → DFW 09:20AA 1700	2h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:13 → PHL 16:44AA 3147	7h 49m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	XNA 07:20 → ATL 10:18DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692	7h 44m	97%	80%
American Details →	XNA 07:09 → ORD 09:10AA 3933 · flown by Envoy	2h 30m Chicago	ORD 11:40 → PHL 14:54AA 1743	6h 45m	100%	79%
United Details →	XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48UA 5812 · flown by SkyWest	3h 06m Denver	DEN 17:54 → PHL 23:30UA 1510	9h 02m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	XNA 09:39 → ATL 12:34DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329	7h 33m	97%	77%
American Details →	XNA 10:42 → CLT 13:55AA 5327 · flown by PSA	2h 58m Charlotte	CLT 16:53 → PHL 18:46AA 864	7h 04m	100%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	XNA 14:56 → ORD 16:59UA 4564 · flown by GoJet	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 17:59 → PHL 21:19UA 1776	5h 23m	69%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON