tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 4033 American flown by Envoy Flight history → XNA 08:27 PHX 09:18 10% 3% 0.6% 93%
AA 2800 American XNA 14:28 PHX 15:26 17% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy 4h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:20 → PHX 11:06AA 2905 8h 06m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → XNA 07:55 → DFW 09:20AA 1700 2h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:29 → PHX 12:14AA 359 6h 19m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → XNA 06:30 → IAH 08:21UA 4051 · flown by Mesa 1h 19m Houston IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895 6h 04m 94% 82%
AmericanDetails → XNA 07:13 → DFW 08:45AA 3985 · flown by Envoy 3h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:26 → PHX 13:12AA 336 7h 59m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → XNA 07:20 → ATL 10:18DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 8h 58m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48UA 5812 · flown by SkyWest 3h 42m Denver DEN 18:30 → PHX 19:30UA 1507 8h 02m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → XNA 11:47 → IAH 13:37UA 4338 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 24m Houston IAH 17:01 → PHX 18:08UA 1478 8h 21m 96% 79%
AmericanDetails → XNA 09:19 → ORD 11:10AA 3595 · flown by Envoy 2h 46m Chicago ORD 13:56 → PHX 15:57AA 1640 8h 38m 100% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → XNA 10:42 → CLT 13:55AA 5327 · flown by PSA 49m Charlotte CLT 14:44 → PHX 16:16AA 1711 7h 34m 69% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON