Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 3620 at 17:57, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 3620 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 17:57	SLC 19:49	9%	4%	0.6%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	XNA 06:30 → IAH 08:21UA 4051 · flown by Mesa	1h 41m Houston	IAH 10:02 → SLC 12:37UA 2242	7h 07m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	XNA 07:20 → ATL 10:18DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423	9h 31m	97%	83%
American Details →	XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy	2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:01 → SLC 11:04AA 1878	7h 04m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	XNA 09:39 → ATL 12:34DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	8h 39m	96%	82%
American Details →	XNA 07:55 → DFW 09:20AA 1700	2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:33 → SLC 13:28AA 1871	6h 33m	100%	77%
American Details →	XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12AA 4088 · flown by Envoy	3h 08m Chicago	ORD 10:20 → SLC 12:51AA 3258	8h 45m	96%	77%
American Details →	XNA 07:09 → ORD 09:10AA 3933 · flown by Envoy	3h 56m Chicago	ORD 13:06 → SLC 15:37AA 1873	9h 28m	100%	74%
American Details →	XNA 13:01 → PHL 16:50AA 5543 · flown by PSA	2h 47m Philadelphia	PHL 19:37 → SLC 22:31AA 2630	10h 30m	96%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	XNA 11:47 → IAH 13:37UA 4338 · flown by CommuteAir	48m Houston	IAH 14:25 → SLC 16:40UA 6207 · flown by Mesa	5h 53m	66%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON