tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 285 at 12:25, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 285 Southwest Flight history → ABQ 12:25 BNA 16:05 19% 4% 0.6% 60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h ahead of Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ABQ 05:30 → DEN 07:00UA 5988 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Denver DEN 08:00 → BNA 11:42UA 605 5h 12m 96% 90%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 06:30 → MDW 10:15WN 4776 1h 05m Chicago MDW 11:20 → BNA 12:45WN 2733 5h 15m 100% 86%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 05:50 → DAL 08:35WN 2559 1h 25m Dallas DAL 10:00 → BNA 11:50WN 5062 5h 00m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 07:00 → DEN 08:23UA 621 1h 27m Denver DEN 09:50 → BNA 13:33UA 1048 5h 33m 97% 85%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 05:00 → HOU 08:05WN 123 1h 00m Houston HOU 09:05 → BNA 11:00WN 5068 5h 00m 97% 85%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 05:10 → DEN 06:30WN 114 3h 30m Denver DEN 10:00 → BNA 13:40WN 1485 7h 30m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 06:00 → IAD 11:50UA 204 1h 00m Dulles IAD 12:50 → BNA 13:49UA 213 6h 49m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 07:00 → ATL 12:04DL 1688 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159 6h 03m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 14:05 → AUS 16:50WN 66 50m Austin AUS 17:40 → BNA 19:50WN 261 4h 45m 68% 45%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 14:00 → PHX 14:20WN 148 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 15:20 → BNA 20:40WN 4600 5h 40m 67% 44%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 13:05 → DAL 15:50WN 106 50m Dallas DAL 16:40 → BNA 18:30WN 1277 4h 25m 65% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON