tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4965 at 13:50, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4965 Southwest Flight history → ABQ 13:50 BUR 14:50 22% 7% 0.7% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 05:10 → DEN 06:30WN 114 1h 15m Denver DEN 07:45 → BUR 09:15WN 2929 5h 05m 98% 91%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 06:05 → LAS 06:35WN 130 1h 10m Las Vegas LAS 07:45 → BUR 09:00WN 3327 3h 55m 98% 90%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 06:40 → PHX 07:00WN 146 1h 15m Phoenix PHX 08:15 → BUR 09:40WN 3243 4h 00m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest 1h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 4h 59m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 12:25 → SLC 14:11DL 4084 · flown by SkyWest 54m Salt Lake City SLC 15:05 → BUR 16:12DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 4h 47m 93% 83%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 06:00 → SFO 07:36UA 538 57m San Francisco SFO 08:33 → BUR 09:57UA 2363 4h 57m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 07:00 → DEN 08:23UA 621 2h 52m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 6h 48m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → ABQ 06:00 → PHX 06:17AA 987 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 07:17 → BUR 08:45AA 3992 · flown by Envoy 3h 45m 93% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 18:15 → LAS 18:55WN 137 1h 00m Las Vegas LAS 19:55 → BUR 21:10WN 2202 3h 55m 67% 39%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 13:15 → LAS 13:50WN 170 50m Las Vegas LAS 14:40 → BUR 15:50WN 4540 3h 35m 25% 16%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON