Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2559 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 2559 ABQ 05:50 → DAL 08:35 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 113 ABQ 18:20 → DAL 21:10 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2559 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 05:50	DAL 08:35	3%	1%	0.7%	88%
WN 106 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 13:05	DAL 15:50	22%	3%	0.6%	78%
WN 107 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 16:20	DAL 19:10	28%	7%	0.7%	61%
WN 113 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 18:20	DAL 21:10	32%	8%	0.7%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON