Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 114 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 114 ABQ 05:10 → DEN 06:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 882 ABQ 18:40 → DEN 20:05 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 114 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 05:10	DEN 06:30	3%	1%	0.6%	95%
UA 5988 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 05:30	DEN 07:00	4%	3%	0.6%	96%
UA 5834 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 10:45	DEN 12:28	9%	4%	0.6%	92%
UA 621 United Flight history →	ABQ 07:00	DEN 08:23	9%	3%	0.7%	91%
WN 2384 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 07:30	DEN 08:50	9%	2%	0.5%	94%
WN 117 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 10:50	DEN 12:10	14%	2%	0.5%	92%
UA 4652 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 17:57	DEN 19:40	16%	6%	0.6%	80%
UA 1741 United Flight history →	ABQ 13:33	DEN 15:03	16%	5%	0.6%	85%
UA 725 United Flight history →	ABQ 16:20	DEN 17:50	19%	7%	0.6%	55%
WN 120 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 14:40	DEN 16:05	32%	7%	0.5%	72%
WN 882 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 18:40	DEN 20:05	36%	9%	0.5%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON