Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3448 at 05:23 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 3448 ABQ 05:23 → DFW 08:18 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 9 ABQ 16:08 → DFW 19:08 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3448 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ABQ 05:23	DFW 08:18	6%	3%	0.8%	91%
AA 99 American Flight history →	ABQ 07:04	DFW 10:00	10%	5%	0.9%	90%
AA 999 American Flight history →	ABQ 08:21	DFW 11:14	12%	5%	0.9%	84%
AA 3371 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ABQ 12:13	DFW 15:07	14%	5%	0.8%	78%
AA 928 American Flight history →	ABQ 10:43	DFW 13:32	16%	6%	0.9%	81%
AA 3374 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ABQ 13:24	DFW 16:19	16%	5%	0.8%	80%
AA 3381 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ABQ 17:28	DFW 20:23	20%	8%	0.9%	66%
AA 9 American Flight history →	ABQ 16:08	DFW 19:08	23%	12%	1.1%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON