tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 204 at 06:00, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 204 United Flight history → ABQ 06:00 IAD 11:50 5% 2% 0.7% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 2 h ahead of Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ABQ 05:30 → DEN 07:00UA 5988 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Denver DEN 08:00 → IAD 13:26UA 1101 5h 56m 96% 89%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 07:00 → DEN 08:23UA 621 1h 57m Denver DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:53UA 2087 6h 53m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 07:40 → ORD 11:55UA 3406 · flown by Republic 3h 58m Chicago ORD 15:53 → IAD 19:02UA 2437 9h 22m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 08:30 → MSP 12:04DL 535 2h 26m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 7h 34m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 12:25 → SLC 14:11DL 4084 · flown by SkyWest 3h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29DL 847 9h 04m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 07:00 → ATL 12:04DL 1688 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 7h 46m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 10:45 → DEN 12:28UA 5834 · flown by SkyWest 1h 25m Denver DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347 6h 37m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 13:33 → DEN 15:03UA 1741 2h 57m Denver DEN 18:00 → IAD 23:32UA 2408 7h 59m 98% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON