Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 130 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 130 ABQ 06:05 → LAS 06:35 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 138 ABQ 20:50 → LAS 21:25 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 130 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 06:05	LAS 06:35	3%	1%	0.6%	94%
WN 4685 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 09:20	LAS 09:55	7%	3%	0.6%	96%
WN 170 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 13:15	LAS 13:50	26%	6%	0.6%	82%
WN 137 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 18:15	LAS 18:55	33%	13%	0.7%	78%worse than usual
WN 138 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 20:50	LAS 21:25	36%	14%	0.6%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON