Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4989 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 4989 ABQ 05:30 → LAX 06:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 140 ABQ 20:45 → LAX 21:50 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4989 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 05:30	LAX 06:30	3%	1%	0.7%	97%
DL 4115 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 06:00	LAX 07:09	4%	2%	0.6%	95%
AA 4919 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 07:00	LAX 08:12	10%	3%	0.6%	93%
AA 4887 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 12:05	LAX 13:13	11%	4%	0.5%	89%
DL 4108 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 12:15	LAX 13:22	11%	4%	0.5%	90%
DL 4091 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 18:48	LAX 19:59	13%	5%	0.6%	87%
WN 140 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 20:45	LAX 21:50	38%	10%	0.6%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON