tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 535 at 08:30, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 535 Delta Flight history → ABQ 08:30 MSP 12:04 5% 3% 0.5% 93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 05:10 → DEN 06:30WN 114 1h 20m Denver DEN 07:50 → MSP 10:55WN 3420 4h 45m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 05:30 → DEN 07:00UA 5988 · flown by SkyWest 2h 35m Denver DEN 09:35 → MSP 12:34UA 397 6h 04m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 06:00 → IAD 11:50UA 204 1h 30m Dulles IAD 13:20 → MSP 15:11UA 3576 · flown by Republic 8h 11m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest 1h 26m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924 5h 45m 98% 87%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 07:30 → DEN 08:50WN 2384 1h 20m Denver DEN 10:10 → MSP 13:10WN 3973 4h 40m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → ABQ 06:00 → PHX 06:17AA 987 2h 18m Phoenix PHX 08:35 → MSP 13:54AA 1750 6h 54m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 16:40 → SLC 18:26DL 3820 · flown by SkyWest 2h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → MSP 00:34 +1DL 1173 6h 54m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 06:00 → SFO 07:36UA 538 57m San Francisco SFO 08:33 → MSP 14:24UA 283 7h 24m 95% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON