tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 143 at 12:10, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 143 Southwest Flight history → ABQ 12:10 OAK 13:30 17% 3% 0.5% 38%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → ABQ 11:34 → PDX 13:35AS 2269 · flown by Horizon 1h 33m Portland PDX 15:08 → OAK 16:55AS 2035 · flown by Horizon 6h 21m 97% 97%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 05:10 → DEN 06:30WN 114 1h 15m Denver DEN 07:45 → OAK 09:25WN 1240 5h 15m 98% 92%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 06:05 → LAS 06:35WN 130 1h 00m Las Vegas LAS 07:35 → OAK 09:10WN 5052 4h 05m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest 1h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest 4h 51m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 12:25 → SLC 14:11DL 4084 · flown by SkyWest 1h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 15:20 → OAK 16:21DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest 4h 56m 97% 88%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 06:40 → PHX 07:00WN 146 2h 40m Phoenix PHX 09:40 → OAK 11:35WN 2680 5h 55m 100% 86%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 06:55 → SAN 07:45WN 153 2h 05m San Diego SAN 09:50 → OAK 11:25WN 4166 5h 30m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 19:59 → SLC 21:46DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 1h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest 4h 51m 91% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 09:20 → LAS 09:55WN 4685 55m Las Vegas LAS 10:50 → OAK 12:30WN 322 4h 10m 75% 64%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 18:15 → LAS 18:55WN 137 55m Las Vegas LAS 19:50 → OAK 21:25WN 4270 4h 10m 60% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON