Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 3406 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 3406 ABQ 07:40 → ORD 11:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1341 ABQ 14:13 → ORD 18:29 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3406 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ABQ 07:40	ORD 11:55	7%	3%	0.8%	91%
UA 365 United Flight history →	ABQ 12:24	ORD 16:29	18%	5%	0.7%	67%
AA 1341 American Flight history →	ABQ 14:13	ORD 18:29	30%	8%	0.6%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON