Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 146 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–45%.

Safest bet that day WN 146 ABQ 06:40 → PHX 07:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 4317 ABQ 21:45 → PHX 22:00 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 37% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 146 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 06:40	PHX 07:00	4%	1%	0.6%	98%
AA 987 American Flight history →	ABQ 06:00	PHX 06:17	7%	4%	0.8%	87%
WN 147 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 10:40	PHX 11:00	13%	3%	0.5%	94%
AA 1348 American Flight history →	ABQ 11:39	PHX 11:56	15%	6%	0.8%	91%
AA 1351 American Flight history →	ABQ 19:18	PHX 19:38	32%	13%	1.0%	63%
WN 148 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 14:00	PHX 14:20	33%	8%	0.5%	65%
WN 149 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 15:40	PHX 16:00	35%	9%	0.5%	81%worse than usual
WN 4557 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 18:10	PHX 18:30	39%	13%	0.6%	65%
WN 4317 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 21:45	PHX 22:00	45%	16%	0.7%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON