tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 153 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 48%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 153 Southwest Flight history → ABQ 06:55 SAN 07:45 9% 2% 0.6% 95%
WN 4521 Southwest Flight history → ABQ 20:10 SAN 21:00 48% 13% 0.7% 35%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 05:10 → DEN 06:30WN 114 1h 45m Denver DEN 08:15 → SAN 09:40WN 1699 5h 30m 99% 84%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 05:20 → AUS 08:05WN 4683 2h 00m Austin AUS 10:05 → SAN 10:55WN 1435 6h 35m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest 1h 26m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 5h 13m 98% 80%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 06:40 → PHX 07:00WN 146 2h 15m Phoenix PHX 09:15 → SAN 10:35WN 1677 4h 55m 98% 77%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 06:05 → LAS 06:35WN 130 2h 05m Las Vegas LAS 08:40 → SAN 09:55WN 2121 4h 50m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 18:48 → LAX 19:59DL 4091 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m Los Angeles LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42DL 3746 · flown by SkyWest 5h 54m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → ABQ 06:00 → PHX 06:17AA 987 1h 17m Phoenix PHX 07:34 → SAN 08:51AA 2461 3h 51m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 07:00 → DEN 08:23UA 621 2h 52m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 6h 41m 98% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 16:35 → HOU 19:50WN 127 50m Houston HOU 20:40 → SAN 21:55WN 2072 6h 20m 69% 42%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 20:50 → LAS 21:25WN 138 50m Las Vegas LAS 22:15 → SAN 23:30WN 2871 3h 40m 57% 29%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 14:40 → DEN 16:05WN 120 50m Denver DEN 16:55 → SAN 18:20WN 4160 4h 40m 45% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON