tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AS 1529 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 1529 Alaska Flight history → ABQ 06:00 SEA 08:10 10% 2% 0.7% 96%
AS 330 Alaska Flight history → ABQ 14:43 SEA 16:55 25% 4% 0.7% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 05:10 → DEN 06:30WN 114 1h 15m Denver DEN 07:45 → SEA 09:45WN 1713 5h 35m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 06:00 → LAX 07:09DL 4115 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Los Angeles LAX 09:45 → SEA 12:30DL 1714 7h 30m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest 1h 51m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 5h 54m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 08:30 → MSP 12:04DL 535 3h 11m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877 9h 30m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 07:00 → DEN 08:23UA 621 2h 58m Denver DEN 11:21 → SEA 13:21UA 1424 7h 21m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 05:30 → DEN 07:00UA 5988 · flown by SkyWest 1h 01m Denver DEN 08:01 → SEA 10:00UA 2271 5h 30m 96% 79%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 06:40 → PHX 07:00WN 146 3h 45m Phoenix PHX 10:45 → SEA 13:50WN 814 8h 10m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 07:40 → ORD 11:55UA 3406 · flown by Republic 1h 35m Chicago ORD 13:30 → SEA 16:09UA 1660 9h 29m 95% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 18:40 → DEN 20:05WN 882 1h 05m Denver DEN 21:10 → SEA 23:10WN 3856 5h 30m 66% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON