Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: UA 538 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 538 United Flight history →	ABQ 06:00	SFO 07:36	4%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 4628 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 13:25	SFO 14:59	25%	11%	0.5%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ABQ 10:45 → DEN 12:28UA 5834 · flown by SkyWest	3h 19m Denver	DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633	7h 45m	100%	79%
United Details →	ABQ 07:00 → DEN 08:23UA 621	2h 58m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	7h 04m	98%	77%
United Details →	ABQ 16:20 → DEN 17:50UA 725	3h 20m Denver	DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123	7h 36m	98%	76%
United Details →	ABQ 13:33 → DEN 15:03UA 1741	2h 51m Denver	DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007	7h 07m	98%	75%
United Details →	ABQ 08:00 → IAH 11:13UA 251	1h 45m Houston	IAH 12:58 → SFO 15:03UA 2756	8h 03m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	ABQ 11:34 → PDX 13:35AS 2269 · flown by Horizon	1h 14m Portland	PDX 14:49 → SFO 16:40AS 236	6h 06m	95%	74%
Southwest Details →	ABQ 05:10 → DEN 06:30WN 114	1h 15m Denver	DEN 07:45 → SFO 09:25WN 2386	5h 15m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest	1h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	5h 08m	97%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	ABQ 21:45 → PHX 22:00WN 4317	50m Phoenix	PHX 22:50 → SFO 00:55 +1WN 1098	4h 10m	48%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON