Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4708 at 11:19 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 4708 ACK 11:19 → BOS 12:31 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 1351 ACK 18:02 → BOS 18:56 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4708 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ACK 11:19	BOS 12:31	9%	3%	0.6%	89%
B6 1151 JetBlue Flight history →	ACK 15:33	BOS 16:26	28%	14%	1.0%	67%
B6 1351 JetBlue Flight history →	ACK 18:02	BOS 18:56	30%	16%	1.1%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON