Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 3863 at 13:50, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3863 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ACK 13:50	CLT 16:14	17%	4%	0.8%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ACK 11:19 → BOS 12:31AA 4708 · flown by Republic	1h 55m Boston	BOS 14:26 → CLT 17:00AA 1611	5h 41m	98%	84%
American Details →	ACK 12:56 → PHL 14:40AA 4735 · flown by Republic	1h 10m Philadelphia	PHL 15:50 → CLT 17:53AA 2573	4h 57m	96%	80%
American Details →	ACK 10:39 → DCA 12:26AA 4543 · flown by Republic	2h 57m Washington	DCA 15:23 → CLT 17:10AA 804	6h 31m	97%	79%
American Details →	ACK 15:38 → PHL 17:28AA 4545 · flown by Republic	2h 07m Philadelphia	PHL 19:35 → CLT 21:29AA 1661	5h 51m	96%	74%
United Details →	ACK 10:53 → EWR 12:39UA 4182 · flown by GoJet	2h 22m Newark	EWR 15:01 → CLT 17:10UA 3533 · flown by Republic	6h 17m	93%	71%
Delta Details →	ACK 15:24 → JFK 16:40DL 5804 · flown by Republic	3h 49m New York	JFK 20:29 → CLT 23:03DL 5036 · flown by Endeavor	7h 38m	99%	64%
American Details →	ACK 14:32 → LGA 16:00AA 4546 · flown by Republic	2h 15m New York	LGA 18:15 → CLT 20:33AA 1942	6h 01m	87%	64%
Delta Details →	ACK 16:40 → LGA 18:05DL 5767 · flown by Republic	1h 05m New York	LGA 19:10 → CLT 21:46DL 5818 · flown by Republic	5h 06m	77%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON