Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


B6 2665 JetBlue Flight history →	ACK 13:58	HPN 15:04	16%	8%	1.2%	81%
B6 2122 JetBlue Flight history →	ACK 17:56	HPN 19:00	19%	10%	1.3%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach White Plains on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ACK 17:10 → DCA 18:55AA 4553 · flown by Republic	3h 10m Washington	DCA 22:05 → HPN 23:29AA 5289 · flown by PSA	6h 19m	99%	71%
American Details →	ACK 13:50 → CLT 16:14AA 3863 · flown by Envoy	2h 06m Charlotte	CLT 18:20 → HPN 20:29AA 5016 · flown by PSA	6h 39m	93%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON