Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5712 at 12:13 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 5712 ACK 12:13 → LGA 13:29 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time Riskiest DL 5767 ACK 16:40 → LGA 18:05 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5712 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	ACK 12:13	LGA 13:29	16%	7%	1.2%	66%
AA 4546 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ACK 14:32	LGA 16:00	19%	9%	1.4%	77%
B6 831 JetBlue Flight history →	ACK 11:15	LGA 12:31	21%	8%	1.3%	82%
AA 4525 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ACK 18:51	LGA 20:19	25%	13%	1.4%	64%
DL 5767 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	ACK 16:40	LGA 18:05	27%	12%	1.4%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON