Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4735 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ACK 12:56	PHL 14:40	9%	4%	0.9%	86%
AA 4545 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ACK 15:38	PHL 17:28	11%	5%	1.1%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ACK 13:50 → CLT 16:14AA 3863 · flown by Envoy	1h 58m Charlotte	CLT 18:12 → PHL 20:12AA 2879	6h 22m	93%	70%
American Details →	ACK 11:19 → BOS 12:31AA 4708 · flown by Republic	2h 32m Boston	BOS 15:03 → PHL 16:39AA 2882	5h 20m	98%	68%
American Details →	ACK 10:39 → DCA 12:26AA 4543 · flown by Republic	1h 04m Washington	DCA 13:30 → PHL 14:38AA 5474 · flown by PSA	3h 59m	89%	63%
JetBlue Details →	ACK 15:33 → BOS 16:26B6 1151	1h 55m Boston	BOS 18:21 → PHL 20:00B6 2459	4h 27m	88%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON