tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 5966 at 12:30, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5966 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ACV 12:30 DEN 16:22 22% 10% 3.4% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Arcata/Eureka). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ACV 07:26 → LAX 09:30UA 4756 · flown by SkyWest 1h 25m Los Angeles LAX 10:55 → DEN 14:27UA 2061 6h 01m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → ACV 15:47 → LAX 17:51UA 5506 · flown by SkyWest 1h 54m Los Angeles LAX 19:45 → DEN 23:15UA 2829 6h 28m 83% 69%
UnitedDetails → ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest 3h 34m San Francisco SFO 18:56 → DEN 22:44UA 2436 7h 39m 96% 69%
AlaskaDetails → ACV 14:50 → SEA 16:30AS 3345 · flown by SkyWest 3h 41m Seattle SEA 20:11 → DEN 23:59AS 642 8h 09m 98% 68%
UnitedDetails → ACV 06:00 → SFO 07:09UA 5313 · flown by SkyWest 1h 22m San Francisco SFO 08:31 → DEN 12:22UA 2348 5h 22m 91% 67%
UnitedDetails → ACV 07:40 → SFO 08:56UA 4632 · flown by SkyWest 3h 47m San Francisco SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 7h 55m 96% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ACV 18:44 → SFO 20:07UA 5305 · flown by SkyWest 53m San Francisco SFO 21:00 → DEN 00:47 +1UA 301 5h 03m 53% 38%
UnitedDetails → ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest 48m San Francisco SFO 16:10 → DEN 20:01UA 1430 4h 56m 44% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON