tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 5506 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ACV 15:47 LAX 17:51 17% 6% 3.0% 93%worse than usual
UA 4756 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ACV 07:26 LAX 09:30 22% 11% 3.0% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ACV 06:00 → SFO 07:09UA 5313 · flown by SkyWest 1h 41m San Francisco SFO 08:50 → LAX 10:34UA 1896 4h 34m 93% 70%
UnitedDetails → ACV 12:30 → DEN 16:22UA 5966 · flown by SkyWest 1h 43m Denver DEN 18:05 → LAX 19:40UA 2240 7h 10m 87% 68%
UnitedDetails → ACV 18:44 → SFO 20:07UA 5305 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m San Francisco SFO 22:37 → LAX 00:19 +1UA 2179 5h 35m 94% 63%
UnitedDetails → ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest 3h 21m San Francisco SFO 18:43 → LAX 20:27UA 1427 6h 22m 96% 63%
AlaskaDetails → ACV 14:50 → SEA 16:30AS 3345 · flown by SkyWest 1h 40m Seattle SEA 18:10 → LAX 21:00AS 524 6h 10m 91% 62%
UnitedDetails → ACV 07:40 → SFO 08:56UA 4632 · flown by SkyWest 3h 19m San Francisco SFO 12:15 → LAX 13:55UA 1506 6h 15m 95% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ACV 07:40 → SFO 08:56UA 4632 · flown by SkyWest 1h 23m San Francisco SFO 10:19 → LAX 11:57UA 2367 4h 17m 71% 46%
UnitedDetails → ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest 1h 03m San Francisco SFO 16:25 → LAX 18:05UA 1754 4h 00m 60% 38%
UnitedDetails → ACV 18:44 → SFO 20:07UA 5305 · flown by SkyWest 48m San Francisco SFO 20:55 → LAX 22:37UA 2850 3h 53m 49% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON