tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 3345 at 14:50, with a 32% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3345 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → ACV 14:50 SEA 16:30 32% 9% 4.2% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ACV 07:26 → LAX 09:30UA 4756 · flown by SkyWest 2h 13m Los Angeles LAX 11:43 → SEA 14:36UA 325 7h 10m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → ACV 12:30 → DEN 16:22UA 5966 · flown by SkyWest 2h 48m Denver DEN 19:10 → SEA 21:10UA 360 8h 40m 94% 60%
UnitedDetails → ACV 15:47 → LAX 17:51UA 5506 · flown by SkyWest 1h 15m Los Angeles LAX 19:06 → SEA 21:59UA 684 6h 12m 83% 58%
UnitedDetails → ACV 18:44 → SFO 20:07UA 5305 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m San Francisco SFO 22:59 → SEA 01:29 +1UA 5579 · flown by SkyWest 6h 45m 97% 57%
UnitedDetails → ACV 07:40 → SFO 08:56UA 4632 · flown by SkyWest 3h 14m San Francisco SFO 12:10 → SEA 14:30UA 2744 6h 50m 95% 57%
UnitedDetails → ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest 3h 06m San Francisco SFO 18:28 → SEA 20:53UA 1577 6h 48m 95% 55%
UnitedDetails → ACV 06:00 → SFO 07:09UA 5313 · flown by SkyWest 3h 06m San Francisco SFO 10:15 → SEA 12:34UA 2192 6h 34m 96% 52%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest 1h 16m San Francisco SFO 16:38 → SEA 19:03UA 2279 4h 58m 70% 41%
UnitedDetails → ACV 07:40 → SFO 08:56UA 4632 · flown by SkyWest 1h 19m San Francisco SFO 10:15 → SEA 12:34UA 2192 4h 54m 65% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON